Latest Tweets
- There is life in the Philips curve after all! research.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/resear… research.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/resear… 3 years ago
- Finally some sense on the matter! bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… 3 years ago
-
Recent Posts
Tag Archives: crisis
A Partial, Annotated List of Covid-19 Resources
This is not a comprehensive list of resources pertaining to the recent crisis, but one that has been kept deliberately short. It will be updated if and when I encounter further resources.
Markets Ignore Shift in Investment Paradigm at Their Own Peril
Despite the market ructions witnessed in February, nothing seems to deter investors for long. A strong cyclical backdrop and robust earnings growth seem to forever ratify the prevailing ‘Buy the Dip’ mentality. Yet, take a step back and you can … Continue reading
Three Simple Reasons Why the New Greek Government Will Blink
As the positions between the Greek government and the Troika harden, it appears that an agreement to extend the current bail-out program or secure some other form of official financing becomes ever more elusive. Yet, it is highly unlikely that … Continue reading
Market Prospects Ahead of the QE3 Wind-Down
The Fed surprised markets with a more hawkish posture than expected, suggesting the start of QE tapering in late 2013 and completion by mid-2014. While Fed guidance may not ultimately come to pass, EM equity markets in particular remain subject … Continue reading
Beyond Cyprus: Implications of the Latest “Unique Solution”
The numbers involved are small. Yet, the Troika/Cyprus move to renege on deposit insurance and appropriate private funds is set to reverberate beyond the tiny island. The decision bodes ill for future rescue efforts: 1) it derails popular support for … Continue reading
Life at 0%: What’s Next for the ECB?
The reduction of the ECB’s deposit rate to 0% led to an immediate Eur500 mn drop in deposit holdings but prompted a simultaneous increase in current account holdings, leaving overall bank reserves unchanged. Yet, focus on these figures is misplaced: … Continue reading
Why the Debate About EZ ‘Fiscal Union’ Is Wrongheaded, Focus on Growth Is Ill-Conceived And Ms Merkel Is Right
A fiscal union in the Eurozone (EZ) – whether in the form of additional financing or debt mutualization – is not only politically unrealistic but also counter-productive in dealing with the issues at hand. Transfers or grants would work, but … Continue reading
Grading the 12th Eurozone Crisis Summit: Still in Search of ‘New Eurozone Man’
The changes to the modus operandi of the ESM agreed at the latest summit appear significant at first (sovereign bond purchase, non-preferred creditor status, direct lending to banks plus the quid pro quo of ECB-led banking supervision) and can help … Continue reading
Macro At Hart 