Tag Archives: US

Markets Ignore Shift in Investment Paradigm at Their Own Peril

Despite the market ructions witnessed in February, nothing seems to deter investors for long. A strong cyclical backdrop and robust earnings growth seem to forever ratify the prevailing ‘Buy the Dip’ mentality. Yet, take a step back and you can … Continue reading

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What Happened in February? Is It the Start of Something New? And Where Will It All End?

Markets reacted strongly to what was possibly a fluke in the data in February. The sharp rise in volatility exaggerated the true significance of the sell-off. As the dust settles it becomes ever clearer that the “correction” was none at … Continue reading

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Another Year of MOTS and FOMO?

(first published January 14) 2017 was a stellar year for asset markets: simply being long risk was sufficient to achieve strong returns. For 2018, market participants are optimistic on the back of expectations of above-trend global growth and broadly ac-commodative monetary … Continue reading

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Why the Fed Balance Sheet Reduction Won’t Affect the Economy – And Why It Will

Quantitative Tightening, as envisaged by the Fed, implies an equivalent, and ultimately sizeable, reduction of bank reserves on the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet.  However, changes in monetary aggregates have little impact on the real economy or inflation. … Continue reading

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Central Banks: Stopping the Addiction

As global economies recover, central banks are shifting towards ‘normalising’ their bloated balance sheets. Given the scale of the previous build-up, many investors fear that this could be hugely disruptive to markets. Yet, this is unlikely. The Fed’s balance sheet … Continue reading

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Third Time Unlucky or The New Sino-American Symbiosis

The global economy is facing its third deflationary shock in succession. After the US economy and the Eurozone, China is the epicenter of the latest crisis. The erstwhile Sino-American Symbiosis resurfaces in a new, more nefarious form. The causation runs … Continue reading

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A Glide Path for the Fed: Earlier, But More Predictable and Flexible Tapering

The Fed began the process of ending QE and thereby kicked off the end of a 30-year long cycle of progressively easier monetary conditions. In starting the tapering process earlier than expected, the Fed has traded off incremental adjustments in … Continue reading

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